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Week 10 NFL Props: New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
After a slow start, the New England Patriots are back where they’re used to being: atop the AFC East at 7-2.
The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, are still finding their way under Mike Vrabel. They’re 4-4 and hoping to build some momentum, and get back into the playoffs.
For more on the two teams, read our Patriots vs Titans Preview. Because from here out, it’s all about props for this matchup.
The return of Julian Edelman and the acclimation of Josh Gordon changed the Patriots’ offense and Tom Brady’s season.
Since Edelman came back and Gordon became a near-full time player in the Pats’ offense, things have gotten better. Brady is averaging 26.8 completions over that time, and his yard per attempt is up to 8.16.
The Titans have been doing fairly well keeping opposing quarterbacks under wraps. But you have to consider the opposition. The two best outings over the last five weeks completions-wise, came from Joe Flacco and Dak Prescott.
Last year in the Divisional Round, it was quintessential Brady. He got the ball out of his hands, quickly, 53 times and let his receivers do the work. Through the entire playoffs he went 55/71 on passes 0-10 yards.
Expect a few more shots to Gordon and a target on the struggling Malcolm Butler, but plenty of completions for Brady.
Last year in the playoffs, Derrick Henry carried the ball 12 times for 28 yards against the Patriots. That was after a dominant 156 yards on 23 carries against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Unfortunately, that was a precursor for Henry’s year. He and Dion Lewis have mostly fizzled so far.
But could things go Henry’s way on Sunday?
While the Pats employ a deceptively effective pass defense, they’re more than willing to let running backs test their luck when facing mobile QBs.
Take last week for example. Aaron Rodgers was contained to just eight yards on four carries. But against a lighter box, Aaron Jones went off for 75 yards. Jamaal Williams was content to add 34 of his own too.
Against teams with more mobile QBs, New England gave up 80 or more rushing yards to the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, Chiefs, and Bears.
Henry has gone over 50 yards just three times this season and is coming off his lowest usage of the season (20% of offensive snaps).
Dion Lewis has been looking like the number one, but it’d be a Belichickian move if Mike Vrabel gave Henry more work after barely using him Monday.
Expect him to hover around that 50 yard mark once again.