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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick
The Denver Broncos are pulling away in the rivalry with the Los Angeles Chargers, winning 12 of the last 15 meetings outright—including a one-point decision earlier this season—to take a 65-51 all-time lead.
But it’s the playoff-bound Chargers who are favored for Sunday afternoon’s battle with the Broncos at Mile High.
Why the Chargers can cover the spread
Los Angeles is looking to bounce back this week after falling at home to a hot Baltimore outfit last Saturday 22-10. The Chargers trailed the Ravens 6-3 at the half and 16-10 late, drove inside Ravens territory but fumbled the ball away into a game-clinching defensive score by Baltimore.
The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Los Angeles, which included a 3-1 run ATS.
The Chargers have now outgained six of their last eight opponents, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS along the way. Los Angeles is also 6-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season, with wins at Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Seattle.
At 11-4 overall, the Chargers, who are already in the playoffs, still have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
Denver is a little tougher to make a case for right now after falling out of playoff contention with three straight losses, including a 27-14 defeat at Oakland on Monday night.
The Broncos gave the Raiders an early gift in the form of a fluky 99-yard punt return touchdown. They trailed 17-0 at the half but pulled to within 24-14 with plenty of time left on the clock, but they could get no closer.
Denver actually outgained Oakland 300-273 but just couldn’t overcome the poor start.
Two weeks ago, the Broncos lost to the improving Browns 17-16, and three weeks ago, they lost at San Francisco 20-14. But they won three in a row prior to that, including victories over the Chargers and Steelers.
Denver has also outrushed six of its last nine opponents, and six of its nine losses this season have come by seven points or less.
At 6-9 overall, the Broncos are playing this game for pride and possibly future employment.
Smart betting pick
Denver took the first meeting between these teams this season 23-22 six weeks ago in Los Angeles, but the Chargers actually dominated play that day. If not for two turnovers and some iffy playcalling down the stretch, Los Angeles would have won that game.
Now the Chargers are coming off a disappointing performance but might be primed for a rebound, while the Broncos are just playing out the string on a lost season. The smart money likes Los Angeles.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone over in the Chargers’ last four games on the road versus the Broncos.
The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home in December.
The Chargers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road versus teams with losing records.
Only one more Sunday until the 2018 Denver Broncos season comes to an end. It has been quite the roller coaster ride. But a season that saw just a glimmer of hope of reaching the postseason came to an end about two weeks ago.
It was clear to a lot of fans in Broncos Country that Vance Joseph does not have the “it” factor to coach this team. The team hit an all time low when even the ESPN commentators mentioned their lack of preparation and the fact that some of the players were not even trying.
It is moments like those that have us all wishing that the season would end. There were some positives to 2018 for the Denver Broncos. But most of them are overshadowed with the negatives of the season.
However, we have one more game to get through. Denver can play spoiler and ensure that the Los Angeles Chargers will spend most of their playoff path on the road. Can the Broncos make that happen? Sure. They beat the Chargers earlier this season.
And with the trash talk that the Chargers have said since the loss, you best believe that Denver is going to use that as motivation, if they show up.